As with all currencies, the Indian Rupee or INR exchange rate has been affected by the current economy. However, in looking at what forecasters are saying for 2010, the Rupee will hit an average over the 12-month period of 49.05 compared to the US dollar. Now, most forecasters agree that by the end of March, the Indian Rupee will see a small decline, perhaps to 45.55, but some believe that an increase to as much as 52.55 is possible.
When looking at the average for the Indian Rupee in February of 2010, the average hit 46.27, which is actually 37.9 basis points greater than what numbers showed for the month of January. However, in looking at the Indian Rupee overall, basis points for just one year prior were 298 lower. Even though the Indian Rupee has dropped over the past 12 months along with many other currencies, forecasters are staying cautiously optimistic. On a positive note, when compared to the US dollar, the Rupee is not making any dramatic moves, instead staying somewhat flat.
Because of this, experts believe if the current trend stays the course, the average by the end of March for the Indian Rupee will be 46.65. Now the thing to remember is that when looking at long-term trends, meaning over the past 12 months, the average was 45.53. Therefore, if the Rupee were to hit 46.65 at the end of March 2010, it is actually higher. Although this indicator is not a huge difference, it is certainly better than being less than the past 10-year average.
Look at the situation with the Indian Rupee this way. From 1973 to 2009, the average exchange rate with the US dollar was just below 23.00. Then, considering that since that time the highest rate the Rupee has ever hit was 51.13, things are not looking too bad. Although at one point in the past 35 plus years the Indian Rupee dipped to 7.27, it is easy to see that this dramatic decline was more the exception and not the rule. This means overall, the Rupee has held its own.
Before investing, it is advised that investors and consumers look at current charts although forecasters are not expecting anything major to occur. Remember, all currencies have been dealt hard blows, some worse than others but when looking at short and long-term trends specific to the Indian Rupee exchange rate, there is some peace of mind knowing this particular country is not among those suffering the most.
Forecasters have done a great job when it comes to the Indian Rupee exchange rate versus the US dollar. For instance, it was predicted that for March 2010, the rate would hit at 49.00. When looking at the Historical Data Test Forecast Accuracy or HDTFA, this number was right on target. On March 6, 2010, the exchange rate settled at 46.27, with a gradual increase. Therefore, from all indicators it appears forecasts for the Indian Rupee to the US dollar is spot on.
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